Press Contact: Tom Z. Collina, Research Director, (202) 463-8270 x104
Research provided by Volha Charnysh, ACA New Voices Nonproliferation Fellow
On April 8, 2010, Russia and the United States signed the New START Treaty, which would limit both sides’ deployed strategic warheads to 1,550 and deployed strategic delivery systems to 700 (deployed and non-deployed launchers would be limited to 800).
Russia is expected to reduce its strategic forces below New START limits. The nonpartisan Congressional Research Service (CRS), for example, estimates that Russia currently deploys an arsenal of approximately 620 strategic delivery vehicles -- Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs), and Strategic Bombers -- which can carry nearly 2,800 nuclear warheads and bombs. Under New START, CRS projects that Russia will reduce its deployed delivery vehicles to approximately 400 and its deployed warheads to 1,335, counting each bomber as "one" warhead. These reduced forces will be composed of more modern systems. This fact sheet looks at the changes in Russian strategic forces that are expected to occur during the seven-year New START implementation period.
Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces under New START
| Estimated Forces, 2010 |
|
||||
| Delivery Systems | Launchers |
Warheads
|
Total launchers
|
Deployed launchers | Deployed warheads |
| SS-18 ICBM | 68 |
680
|
68
|
20 | 200 |
| SS-19 ICBM | 72 |
432
|
0
|
0 | 0 |
| SS-25 (mobile) | 180 |
180
|
0
|
0 | 0 |
| SS-27 (mobile) | 13 |
13
|
27
|
27 | 27 |
| SS-27 (silo) | 50 |
50
|
60
|
60 | 60 |
| RS-24 (mobile) | 0 |
0
|
85
|
85 | 340 |
| SS-N-18 | 64 (4 SSBNs) |
192
|
0
|
0 | 0 |
| SS-N-23 | 96 (6 SSBNs) | 384 | 64 (4 SSBNs) | 64 | 256 |
| SS-N-32 (Bulava) | 0 | 0 | 64 (4 SSBNs) | 64 | 384 |
| Blackjack Bomber | 14 | 168 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Bear Bomber | 63 | 688 | 63 | 63 | 63 |
| Total | 620 | 2787 | 444 | 396 | 1335 |
Source: Amy F. Woolf, “The New START Treaty: Central Limits and Key Provisions,” Congressional Research Service, May 3, 2010, p. 20.
The new Russian strategic systems expected to be deployed in the next decade include:
- The SS-27 ICBM and its multiple-warhead derivative, the RS-24, replacing the older SS-18, SS-19 and SS-25;
- The Bulava SS-N-32 SLBM and a new Borey-class SSBN, replacing the SS-N-18 and Delta III SSBN; and
- Upgraded Bear and Blackjack heavy bombers, a new strategic bomber in 2025-2030, and a new nuclear cruise missile, the Kh-102.
The following is a status update of Russia’s current programs to retire, maintain and modernize its strategic forces.
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs)
Russian Strategic Rocket Forces (RSFR) control about 1,355 nuclear warheads on 383 missile systems. Russia possesses ICBMs of six types: SS-18; SS-19; mobile SS-25; silo-based SS-27, mobile SS-27, and RS-24 – a multiple-warhead derivative of the SS-27. According to RSRF development plans, when the modernization drive is complete, new rocket systems will account for at least 80% of the forces.
Russia’s newest ICBM, the SS-27, comes in three variants: silo-based single warhead; mobile single warhead; and mobile multiple warhead (RS-24). When New START is fully implemented in 2017 (assuming the treaty enters into force in 2010) the Rocket Forces are expected to have 87 SS-27 missiles (60 silo-based SS-27s and 27 mobile SS-27s), deployed at a rate of about 7 missiles per year. Each SS-27 has a service life of at least 20 years.
Russia is expected to start deploying the multiple-warhead RS-24 in 2010.[1] Each RS-24 is estimated to carry four or more warheads. Russia will probably deploy about 85 RS-24s, which will carry a total of 340 warheads (assuming 4 warheads each). If 6-7 warheads were deployed on each RS-24, Russia could field up to the 1,550 warheads allowed by the treaty.
All of Russia’s SS-25s are expected to be retired by 2015 after a service life of over 20 years, and Russia will likely no longer retain this type of missile by the end of New START's implementation period.
Russia has extended the service life of the SS-19 missile to 33 years and retired about 10 of them in 2009. All but the 20 newest SS-19s are likely to be withdrawn by 2012, and the remaining missiles will be replaced by the SS-27 within the seven years of New START implementation. However, Russia could keep some of these older missiles if it decides to field more warheads and launchers under the treaty.
The service life of the SS-18 missile is 21-25 years. Twenty SS-18s were retired in 2009; all but the 20 newest SS-18s are likely to be retired by the end of New START implementation. The remaining 20 are expected to be retired around 2030. To replace the SS-18, Russia is considering a new heavy, liquid-fueled ICBM by the end of 2016.
Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) and Submarines
Russia currently has 10 active SSBNs: six Delta IVs carrying SS-N-23 missiles based at the Kola Peninsula; and four Delta IIIs carrying SS-N-18 missiles based at the Kamchatka Peninsula. The strategic fleet modernization program is currently getting the biggest share of Russia's military spending.
By the end of New START implementation, Russia plans to replace the four Delta III SSBNs with four Borey-class SSBNs, each carrying 16 SS-N-32 Bulava missiles (with 6 warheads each for a total of 384 deployed warheads), to serve as a centerpiece of Russian naval nuclear forces until 2040. The development of Borey has been far from smooth, however. The first SSBN, Yuri Dolgoruki, has been under development for more than 10 years, and delivery of the second SSBN, the Alexander Nevsky, has been delayed until 2010 at the earliest. A third, tentatively named Vladimir Monomakh, is scheduled to be completed in 2012 but also might be delayed. The forth submarine also seems to be delayed; the keel was scheduled to be laid down in December 2009, but that, too, has been postponed. The development of the SS-N-32 missile has encountered even more problems, and few of the 12 missile tests have been successful.
Moscow is also upgrading its Delta IV SSBNs to carry the new SS-N-23 missile. While these missiles are newly manufactured, they are based on an old SS-N-23 design. Three submarines (the Bryansk, Tula, and Yekaterinburg) have completed upgrades; a fourth (Karelia) is nearing completion, and a fifth (Novomoskovsk) began modernization in 2009. By 2017, Russia will probably have 4 upgraded Delta IV SSBNs, each carrying 16 SS-N-23 missiles carrying a total of 256 warheads.
Strategic bombers
Russia deploys 77 Blackjack and Bear strategic bombers equipped to carry gravity bombs and various modifications of the Kh-55 (AS-15) cruise missile. The New START Treaty counts each bomber as one weapon, even though Russian strategic bombers are equipped to carry up to16 nuclear weapons each.
Russia is upgrading the targeting and navigation systems of its bombers. At a rate of 2-3 aircraft upgraded per year, the modernization program is likely to end by 2015. At the end of New START implementation, Russia’s strategic bomber force will likely consist of 13 upgraded Blackjack bombers and 63 upgraded Bear bombers.
Russia is also considering the replacement of all strategic aircraft with a new strategic bomber using stealth technology sometime in 2025-2030. The Tupolev Design Bureau began development of the new aircraft under a contract with the Ministry of Defense in August 2009. The new bomber would likely be deployed after the ten-year duration of the New START Treaty.
Russia has also been developing an advanced nuclear cruise missile (Kh-102) for more than a decade, but it still is not deployed. It is also converting some nuclear AS-15A cruise missiles to conventional missiles designated as Kh-555.
| Names used in the fact sheet |
Alternative names
|
| SS-18 ICBM |
Satan, Voevoda, R-36M
|
| SS-19 ICBM |
Stiletto, UR-100NUTTH
|
| SS-25 (mobile) |
Sickle, RT-2PM Topol
|
| SS-27 (silo) |
Sickle B, RT-2UTTKh Topol-M
|
| RS-24 (mobile) |
MIRVed Topol-M
|
| SS-N-18 |
69 R-29R, carried by Delta III SSBN
|
| SS-N-23 |
Skiff, RSM-54 Sineva, carried by Delta IV SSBN
|
| SS-N-32 (Bulava) |
RSM-56, carried by Borey SSBN
|
| Blackjack Bomber | Tupolev Tu-160 |
| Bear Bomber | Tupolev Tu-95 MS |
Sources:
Gavrilov, Yuri, “Bez force-majora,” Rossiiskaya Gazeta, Sep. 23, 2009, http://www.rg.ru/2009/09/23/zakaz.html
Medvedev, Dmitry, “Presidential Address to the Federation Assembly of the Russian Federation,” November 12, 2009, kremlin.ru/text/speeches/2009/11/12/1321_type70029type82912_222702.shtml.
“Ne snosit’ Bulavy,” Izvestia, April 13, 2010, http://izvestia.ru/person/article3140744/.
Norris, Robert S. and Hans M. Kristensen, “Russian Nuclear Forces, 2010,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 2010.
Podvig, Pavel, “Long-term force projections,” Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, Jan. 25, 2009, http://russianforces.org/blog/2009/01/long-term_force_projections.shtml
Podvig, “Long life of UR-100NUTTH - 33 years and counting,” Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, Dec. 1, 2008, http://russianforces.org/blog/2008/12/long_life_of_ur-100nutth_-_33.shtml.
Podvig, “Stealth Plans,” Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, Dec. 22, 2009, http://russianforces.org/blog/2009/12/stealth_plans.shtml.
Podvig, “Tu-160 modernization program is underway,” Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, April 26, 2008, http://russianforces.org/blog/2008/04/tu160_modernization_program_is.shtml
“Russia to Keep SS-18 Ballistic Missiles in Service until 2019,” RIA Novosti, April 10, 2009.
“Russia Proves Effectiveness of Its Naval Nuclear Forces—Navy,” RIA Novosti, July 15, 2009.
“Russia to Upgrade Strategic Bombers in 2009,” RIA Novosti, Dec. 23, 2008.
“‘Satane’ sozdaiotsia zamena,” Oruzhie Rossii, Dec. 17, 2009, http://www.arms-expo.ru/site.xp/049057054048124049050056049055.html.
“Russia continues to modernize its nuclear triad,” Defense Talk, Nov. 19, 2009, http://www.defencetalk.com/russia-continues-to-modernize-its-nuclear-triad-23080.
“Russia Plans Smaller, Younger Missile Arsenal,” Global Security Newswire, April 13, 2009, www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/ gsn/nw_ 20090413_ 8433.php.
Solovyov, Dmitry, “Russia Plans New Carriers, Subs to Boost Navy,” Reuters, July 27, 2008.
US Department of State, START Aggregate Numbers of Strategic Offensive Arms, July 1, 2009.
________________________________________________________________________
1. However, there were some unverified reports suggesting that the first RS-24 missiles were deployed in late 2009. “Ne snosit’ Bulavy,” Izvestia, April 13, 2010, http://izvestia.ru/person/article3140744/.